Q&A: How Do Presidential Elections Impact the Housing Market?
Even if you’re not looking to move right away, you may have questions about how the election will impact the housing market. When we look at historical trends, combined with what’s happening right now, we can find your answers. Based on historical data, mortgage rates decrease in the months before and home prices and sales increase the year after the election. The facts show Presidential elections only have a small and temporary impact on the housing market.
Read MoreWhat To Expect from Mortgage Rates and Home Prices in 2025
Curious about where the housing market is headed in 2025? The good news is that experts are offering some promising forecasts, especially when it comes to two key factors that directly affect your decisions: mortgage rates and home prices. Whether you're thinking of buying or selling, here’s a look at what the experts are saying and how it might impact your move. Mortgage Rates Are Forecast To Come Down One of the biggest factors likely affecting your plans is mortgage rates, and the forecast looks positive. After rising dramatically in recent years, experts project rates will ease slightly throughout the course of 2025 (see graph below): While that decline won’t be a straight line down, the overall trend should continue over the next year. Expect a few bumps along the way, because the trajectory of rates will depend on new economic data and inflation numbers as they’re released. But don’t get too hung up on those blips and reactions from the market as they happen. Focus on the bigger picture. Lower mortgage rates mean improving affordability. As rates come down, your monthly mortgage payment decreases, giving you more flexibility in what you can afford if you buy a home. This shift will likely bring more buyers and sellers back into the market, though. As Charlie Dougherty, Director and Senior Economist at Wells Fargo, explains: “Lower financing costs will likely boost demand by pulling affordability-crunched buyers off of the sidelines.” As that happens, both inventory and competition among buyers will ramp back up. The takeaway? You can get ahead of that competition now. Lean on your agent to make sure you understand how the shifts in rates are impacting demand in your area. Home Price Projections Show Modest Growth While mortgage rates are expected to come down slightly, home prices are forecast to rise—but at a much more moderate pace than the market has seen in recent years. Experts are saying home prices will grow by an average of about 2.5% nationally in 2025 (see graph below): This is far more manageable than the rapid price increases of previous years, which saw double-digit percentage growth in some markets. What’s behind this ongoing increase in prices? Again, it has to do with demand. As more buyers return to the market, demand will rise – but so will supply as sellers feel less rate-locked. More buyers in markets with inventory that’s still below the norm will put upward pressure on prices. But with more homes likely to be listed, supply will help keep price growth in check. This means that while prices will rise, they’ll do so at a healthier, more sustainable pace. Of course, these national trends may not reflect exactly what’s happening in your local market. Some areas might see faster price growth, while others could see slower gains. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, says: “Even if the average national home price forecast for 2025 is correct, it’s possible that some regional housing markets could see mild home price declines, while some markets could still see elevated appreciation. That has been, after all, the case this year.” Even the few markets that may see flat or slightly lower prices in 2025 have had so much appreciation in recent years – it may not have a big impact. That’s why it’s important to work with a local real estate expert who can give you a clear picture of what’s happening where you’re looking to buy or sell. Bottom Line With mortgage rates expected to ease and home prices projected to rise at a more moderate pace, 2025 is shaping up to be a more promising year for both buyers and sellers. If you have any questions about how these trends might impact your plans, let’s connect. That way you’ve got someone to help you navigate the market and make the most of the opportunities ahead.
Read MoreThe Benefits of Using Your Equity To Make a Bigger Down Payment
Did you know? Homeowners are often able to put more money down when they buy their next home. That’s because, once they sell, they can use the equity they have in their current house toward their next down payment. And it’s why as home equity reaches a new height, the median down payment has too. According to the latest data from Redfin, the typical down payment for U.S. homebuyers is $67,500—that’s nearly 15% more than last year, and the highest on record (see graph below): Here’s why equity makes this possible. Over the past five years, home prices have increased significantly, which has led to a big boost in equity for current homeowners like you. When you sell your house and move, you can take the equity that gives you and apply it toward a larger down payment on your new home. That’s a major opportunity, especially if you’ve had concerns about affordability. Now, it’s important to remember you don’t have to make a big down payment to buy your next home—there are loan programs that let you put as little as 3%, or even 0% down. But there’s a reason so many current homeowners are opting to put more money down. That’s because it comes with some serious perks. Why a Bigger Down Payment Can Be a Game Changer 1. You’ll Borrow Less and Save More in the Long Run When you use your equity to make a bigger down payment on your next home, you won’t have to borrow as much. And the less you borrow, the less you’ll pay in interest over the life of your loan. That’s money saved in your pocket for years to come. 2. You Could Get a Lower Mortgage Rate Providing a larger down payment shows your lender you’re more financially stable and not a large credit risk. The more confident your lender is in your credit score and your ability to pay your loan, the lower the mortgage rate they’ll likely be willing to give you. And that amplifies your savings. 3. Your Monthly Payments Could Be Lower A bigger down payment doesn’t just help you reduce how much you have to borrow—it also means your monthly mortgage payment may be smaller. That can make your next home more affordable and give you a bit more breathing room in your budget. 4. You Can Skip Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) If you can put down 20% or more, you can avoid Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI), which is an added cost many buyers have to pay if their down payment isn’t as large. Freddie Mac explains it like this: “For homeowners who put less than 20% down, Private Mortgage Insurance or PMI is an added insurance policy for homeowners that protects the lender if you are unable to pay your mortgage. It is not the same thing as homeowner's insurance. It's a monthly fee, rolled into your mortgage payment, that’s required if you make a down payment less than 20%.” Avoiding PMI means you’ll have one less expense to worry about each month, which is a nice bonus. Bottom Line Down payments are at a record high, largely because recent equity gains are putting homeowners in a position to put more money down. If you’re thinking about selling your current house and moving, let’s work together to figure out how much home equity you have right now, and how it can boost your buying power in today’s market.
Read MoreWhy Did More People Decide To Sell Their Homes Recently?
Homeowners typically slow down their moving plans as the summer months wrap up, and as a result, fewer homes are listed for sale in the fall. It’s a predictable, seasonal trend in real estate. But this year, mortgage rates came down at the same time the number of homes on the market usually starts to decline. So, what happened? More homeowners decided to sell, so more homes came to the market. The most recent data from Realtor.com reveals that in September, the number of homes put up for sale increased by 11.6% compared to this time last year. As the green circle in the graph below shows, the typical September decline in homes coming to the market didn’t happen – that number actually went up (see graph below): Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains why there was an unseasonable rise: “This sharp increase is largely due to the decline in mortgage rates in mid-August, enticing homeowners to sell.” So, as rates came down at the end of the summer, more people jumped into the market and decided to make their move. What Does This Mean If You’re Looking To Buy a Home? It means more fresh options to choose from than you’ve had in a while – not the ones that have been sitting around, unsold. But keep in mind, mortgage rates have been volatile lately, ticking up slightly in recent weeks, which could limit the number of people who feel comfortable with the idea of selling in the months ahead. And in this market, it’s mortgage rates that are largely driving homeowner decisions. Why Buy Now, Rather Than Wait? Whether you're looking for a starter home, an upgrade, or hoping to downsize, you have more homes to choose from right now. And if you can find what you’re looking for, know that these new, fresh options won’t be on the market forever. So, staying on top of what’s available in your local area with a trusted agent is key. And remember, one month doesn’t make a trend. So, what does that mean going forward? Whether more homeowners than normal continue to put their houses on the market will largely depend on what happens with mortgage rates and the economic factors that impact them, like inflation, employment, and the reactions by the Federal Reserve. With that in mind, now might be your moment, while more homes are available – if you’re ready, willing, and able to buy this fall. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains: “The rise in inventory – and, more technically, the accompanying months’ supply – implies home buyers are in a much-improved position to find the right home and at more favorable prices.” Bottom Line As rates came down at the end of the summer, sellers started to trickle back into the market, which means buyers have more choices right now. Let’s connect to make sure you have a trusted advisor to help you navigate the new options before they’re all scooped up.
Read MoreNow’s the Time To Upgrade to Your Dream Home
If you’ve been wanting to sell your house and move up to a bigger or nicer home, you’re not alone. A recent Inman survey reveals the top motivator for today’s homebuyers is the desire for more space or an upgraded home (see graph below): But there’s also a good chance you, like many other people, have been holding off on that goal because of recent market challenges. It makes sense – when you’re planning an upgrade that could increase your monthly housing costs, affordability has a huge impact on when you make your move. But there’s good news: now’s actually a great time to make that move happen. Here’s why. You Have a Lot of Equity To Leverage One of the key benefits in today’s market is the amount of equity you’ve likely built up in your current house over the years. Even with recent shifts in the housing market, national home prices have steadily grown, adding to the equity homeowners have today. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains it well: “Persistent home price growth has continued to fuel home equity gains for existing homeowners who now average about $315,000 in equity and almost $129,000 more than at the onset of the pandemic.” What does that mean for you? If you’ve been in your home for a few years, you’re probably sitting on a significant amount of equity. You can put that toward the down payment on your next home, helping keep the amount you borrow within a comfortable range. This can make upgrading more achievable than you might think. If you’re curious how much you’ve built up over the years, ask your real estate agent for a professional equity assessment. Mortgage Rates Have Fallen, Boosting Your Purchasing Power And there’s another big reason why now’s a great time to make your move: mortgage rates are trending down. Lower rates can help make your future monthly payments more manageable, and they also increase your purchasing power. As Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist and Director of Real Estate Research at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), points out: “When mortgage rates fall, the interest portion of monthly payments decreases, which lowers the total payment. This makes it easier for more borrowers to . . . qualify for mortgages that may have been unaffordable at higher rates.” That gives you more flexibility when shopping for homes and may allow you to afford a house at a price point that was previously out of reach. A trusted lender can work with you to figure out the best plan for your budget. Bottom Line If you’re ready to sell your current home and find the bigger, nicer home you’ve been dreaming of, don’t wait. Your equity, paired with lower mortgage rates, puts you in a great position to make that move today. To make the best decisions and get the most out of your current market advantage, let’s connect so you have an expert guide through every step of the homebuying process.
Read MoreThe Top 3 Reasons Affordability Is Improving
Affordability is based on three key factors: mortgage rates, home prices, and wages. And today, it’s improving quickly as rates come down, prices level off, and wages climb. If you put your search on pause because it was too expensive to buy, let’s talk about why now may be the perfect time to jump back in.
Read MoreThe Top 3 Reasons Affordability Is Improving
There are 3 big reasons affordability is improving today. Mortgage rates are coming down, home prices are moderating, and wages are rising. If you hit pause on your home search because it felt out of reach, maybe it’s time to dive back in.
Read MoreThis Is the Sweet Spot Homebuyers Have Been Waiting For
After months of sitting on the sidelines, many homebuyers who were priced out by high mortgage rates and affordability challenges finally have an opportunity to make their move. With rates trending down, today’s market is a sweet spot for buyers—and it’s one that may not last long. So, if you’ve put your own move on the back burner, here’s why maybe you shouldn’t delay your plans any longer. As you weigh your options and decide if you should buy now or wait, ask yourself this: What do you think everyone else is going to do? The truth is, if mortgage rates continue to ease, as experts project, more buyers will jump back into the market. A survey from Bankrate shows over half of homeowners would be motivated to buy this year if rates drop below 6% (see graph below): With rates already in the low 6% range, we’re not terribly far off from hitting that threshold. The bottom line is, that when they drop into the 5s, the number of buyers in the market is going to go up – and that means more competition for you. That increased demand will likely push home prices up, which could potentially take away from some of the benefits you'd gain from a slightly lower interest rate. As Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist and Director of Real Estate Research at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains: “The downside of increased demand is that it puts upward pressure on home prices as multiple buyers compete for a limited number of homes. In markets with ongoing housing shortages, this price increase can offset some of the affordability gains from lower mortgage rates.” So, while waiting to buy may seem like a smart move, it could backfire if rising prices outpace your savings from slightly lower rates. What This Means for You Right now, you’ve got the chance to get ahead of all of that. Today’s market is a buyer sweet spot. Why? Because a lot of other buyers are waiting – which means not as many people are actively looking for homes. That means less competition for you. At the same time, affordability has already improved quite a bit. Recent easing in mortgage rates has made homeownership more accessible. As Mike Simonsen, Founder of Altos Research, says: “Mortgage payments on the typical-price home are 7% lower than last year and are 13% lower than the peak in May 2024.” And while the supply of homes for sale is still low, it's also higher than it’s been in years. According to Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com: “The number of homes actively for sale continues to be elevated compared with last year, growing by 35.8%, a 10th straight month of growth, and now sits at the highest since May 2020.” This means you now have more options to choose from than you’ve had in quite a while. With fewer buyers in the market, improving affordability, and more homes to choose from, you have the chance to find the right one before the competition heats up. Why Waiting Could Cost You If you’re waiting for the perfect time to buy, it’s important to understand that timing the market is nearly impossible. The longer you wait, the higher the risk that market conditions will shift—and not necessarily in your favor. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says: “It’s one of those things where you should be careful what you wish for. A further drop in mortgage rates could bring a surge of demand that makes it tougher to actually buy a house.” Bottom Line Don’t wait until you have to deal with more competition and higher prices – you already have the chance to buy a home while we’re in the sweet spot today. Let’s connect to make sure you’re taking advantage of it.
Read MoreBuying Beats Renting in 22 Major U.S. Cities
That’s right—according to a recent study from Zillow, in 22 of the 50 largest metro areas, monthly mortgage payments are now lower than rent payments (see chart below): As mortgage rates have eased off their recent peak, home prices have moderated, and inventory has ticked up, affordability has improved significantly. When you add all of that up, it’s getting less expensive to buy a home than to rent one in many parts of the country. This is a big deal if you’ve been renting for a while now. But if you don’t see your city on this list, don’t sweat it. Things are moving fast, and your area might be joining these top metros soon. You see, talking with a local real estate agent about what’s happening in your market before this happens in your ideal neighborhood could really change the game for you. It’s all about being informed by a true expert, and understanding what was out of reach before might actually be getting more affordable than you think. Now, while this study compares monthly rent to principal and interest on a mortgage payment (not the whole monthly payment), let’s think through this. As Zillow notes, what you can’t ignore when you buy a home are things like taxes, insurance, utilities, and maintenance that should also be factored into your budget and your monthly payment. But remember – renters pay extra fees too, like renters’ insurance, utilities, parking, and more. And while doing the math may feel like a drag, this equation could be a much more exciting one to work through today. So, grab your calculator and your agent because the big takeaway is this: it may be time to determine if you’re in a spot to afford what you couldn’t just a few months ago. As Orphe Divounguy, Senior Economist at Zillow, says: “… for those who can make it work, homeownership may come with lower monthly costs and the ability to build long-term wealth in the form of home equity — something you lose out on as a renter. With mortgage rates dropping, it's a great time to see how your affordability has changed and if it makes more sense to buy than rent.” Whether you live in one of these budget-friendly metros where the scales have already tipped in your favor, or any town in-between, it’s time to connect with a local real estate agent to get the conversation started. With mortgage rates coming down and more homes hitting the market, you’ll want to be ready to jump back into your search – before everyone else does. Bottom Line If you’re tired of renting and ready to find out what it takes to purchase a home in our area now that the landscape may be shifting, let’s do the math together to see if buying a home makes sense for you now or sometime soon.
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If you’re wondering if you should buy now or wait, here’s what you need to know. If you wait for rates to drop more, you’ll have to deal with more competition and higher prices as additional buyers jump back in. But if you buy now, you’d get ahead of that and have the chance to start building equity. Should you buy now or wait? Let’s talk through it together, so you can make your best decision.
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Buy Now, or Wait? You may be tempted to wait until mortgage rates come down even more. But here’s what you need to know. If you wait, you'll have to compete with all those other people when you go to buy your next home. You have a chance to get ahead of the other buyers right now. Let’s connect and make it happen.
Read More Lower Mortgage Rates Boost Your Buying Power
Mortgage rates are trending down and that’s great news for your bottom line. As rates drop, your monthly payment on your next home does too. Even a small change in mortgage rates can have a big impact on your purchasing power. If you put your search on hold when mortgage rates were higher, think about how much you could save now that rates are coming down.
Read MoreLower Mortgage Rates Boost Your Buying Power
As rates drop, your monthly payment on your next home will too. Let’s connect to talk about how today’s rates boost your purchasing power.
Read MoreFalling Mortgage Rates Are Bringing Buyers Back
If you’ve been hesitant to list your house because you’re worried no one’s buying, here’s your sign it may be time to talk with an agent. After months of high rates keeping buyers on the sidelines, things are starting to shift. Rates are already coming down due to a number of economic factors. And yesterday the Federal Reserve cut the Federal Funds Rate for the first time since they began raising that rate in March 2022. And while they don’t control mortgage rates, this sets the stage for mortgage rates to fall even further than they already have – especially since more cuts from the Fed are expected into next year. And lower mortgage rates are bringing more buyers back into the market. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says: “A drop in the cost of borrowing will help fuel more homebuyer demand . . . Falling rates will also bring more sellers into the market.” The best part? You can take advantage of that renewed buyer interest. As Rates Fall, Buyer Activity Goes Up The graph below illustrates the relationship between falling mortgage rates and rising buyer activity. The orange line represents the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, while the blue line shows the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Mortgage Application Index, which tracks the number of mortgage applications. As you can see, as mortgage rates (orange) come down, the Mortgage Application Index (blue) rises, showing more people start to re-engage in the process (see graph below): What This Means for You According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), home sales increased in July, which was a welcome shift after four straight months of declines. If you're a homeowner thinking about selling, this uptick in buyer activity works in your favor. More buyers means more competition, which can lead to higher offers and shorter time on the market for your house. And, according to Edward Seiler, AVP of Housing Economics at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), this trend is expected to continue: “MBA is expecting that slower home-price appreciation, coupled with lower rates, will ease affordability constraints and lead to increased activity in the housing market.” All in all, the market is becoming more accessible to a wider range of buyers, which could result in even more people looking to purchase a house like yours. With more buyers entering the market, now’s the time to start getting your house ready to sell. Bottom Line The recent decline in mortgage rates is already driving more buyers into the market, and experts project this trend will continue. Let’s work together to take advantage of this increased buyer demand and get your house ready to sell.
Read MoreThe Best Time To Buy a Home This Year
A shift is underway in the housing market this season. And if you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right moment to jump back into your homebuying search, this is a great time to do it. That’s because the best week to buy a home this year is just around the corner. Your sweet spot is here. The experts at Realtor.com study seasonal trends to figure out the ideal week for homebuyers: “Nationally, the best time to buy in 2024 is the week of Sept. 29–Oct. 5. This week historically has shown the best balance of market conditions that favor buyers. Inventory tends to be high, prices are below peak levels, demand is waning, and the pace of the market slows to a more manageable speed.” In addition to the historical trends and typical seasonality that Realtor.com looks at, there are also clear indicators in today’s market data that you’ll see better conditions right now than you would have over the last few years. Mortgage rates just hit their lowest point in 19 months, and that goes a long way to help with your purchasing power and affordability. Andy Walden with Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) points out: “Recent easing in mortgage rates brought some much-sought relief to prospective homebuyers. Along with a general cooling in home price growth, rates falling below 6.5 percent made August the most affordable month for housing since February.” And Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains that it’s not just rates that have improved – inventory has too: “The number of homes actively for sale continues to be elevated compared with last year, growing by 35.8%, a 10th straight month of growth, and now sits at the highest since May 2020.” That should give you more options. At the same time, sellers now have to compete with each other for your attention. That means they’ll be more likely to negotiate because they know their house will sit on the market longer if they don’t. As Zillow says: “Buyers waiting on the sidelines could find that early fall presents a ‘sweet spot,’ where there’s less competition from other buyers, more motivated sellers and lower interest rates to finance their purchases.” Bottom Line If you want to make sure you’re ready to take advantage of this sweet spot, let’s connect and start the prep work now. Maybe it’s time to get off the sidelines and into the action.
Read MoreMortgage Rates Drop to Lowest Level in over a Year and a Half
Mortgage rates have hit their lowest point in over a year and a half. And that’s big news if you’ve been sitting on the homebuying sidelines waiting for this moment. Even a small decline in rates could help you get a better monthly payment than you would expect on your next home. And the drop that’s happened recently isn’t small. As Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, says: “Mortgage rates have fallen more than half a percent . . . and are at their lowest level since February 2023.” But if you want to see it to really believe it, here’s how the math shakes out. Take a closer look at the impact on your monthly payment. The chart below shows what a monthly payment (principal and interest) would look like on a $400K home loan if you purchased a house back in April (this year’s mortgage rate high), versus what it could look like if you buy a home now (see below): Going from 7.5% just a few months ago to the low 6s has a big impact on your bottom line. In just a few months’ time, the anticipated monthly payment on a $400K loan has come down by over $370. That’s hundreds of dollars less per month. Bottom Line With the recent drop in mortgage rates, the purchasing power you have right now is better than it’s been in almost two years. Let’s talk about your options and how you can make the most of this moment you’ve been waiting for.
Read MoreWhy Pre-Approval Should Be at the Top of Your Homebuying To-Do List
Since the supply of homes for sale is growing and mortgage rates are coming down, you may be thinking it’s finally your moment to jump into the market. To make sure you’re ready, you need to get pre-approved for a mortgage. That’s when a lender looks at your finances, including things like your W-2, tax returns, credit score, and bank statements, to figure out what they’re willing to loan you. After that process, you’ll get a pre-approval letter to show what you can borrow. Here are two reasons why this is essential in today’s market. Pre-Approval Helps You Know Your Numbers While home affordability is finally starting to show signs of improving, it’s still tight. So, it’s a good idea to talk to a lender about your loan options and how today’s changing mortgage rates will impact your monthly payment. The pre-approval process is the perfect time for that. In addition to determining the maximum amount you can borrow, pre-approval also helps you understand this piece of the puzzle. As Investopedia says: “Consulting with a lender and obtaining a pre-approval letter allows you to discuss loan options and budgeting with the lender; this step can clarify your total house-hunting budget and the monthly mortgage payment you can afford.” You should use this information to tailor your home search to what you’re actually comfortable with budget-wise. Since mortgage rates have inched down some lately, you may find you’re able to afford a bit more than you’d expect for your monthly payment, but you still want to avoid overextending. As CNET explains: “In many cases, a lender may preapprove you for more than you need to spend on a home. And while it can be tempting to look at houses outside your budget, it won’t help you in the long run. Before you start touring homes, figure out how much you can realistically afford and stick to your budget.” Pre-Approval Makes Your Offer More Appealing And once you do find a home you want in your budget, pre-approval has another big perk. It not only makes your offer stronger, it also shows sellers you’ve already undergone a credit and financial check. When a seller sees you as a serious buyer, they may be more attracted to your offer because it seems more likely to go through. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says: “Preapproval carries more weight because it means lenders have actually done more than a cursory review of your credit and your finances, but have instead reviewed your pay stubs, tax returns and bank statements. A preapproval means you’ve cleared the hurdles necessary to be approved for a mortgage up to a certain dollar amount.” As mortgage rates trend down, more buyers are going to be ready to jump back into the market. And while demand is still limited right now, there’s the potential for competition to pick back up, especially in hot markets. So, why not stack the deck in your favor and make sure you’re putting yourself in the best position possible when you find a home you love? Bottom Line If you’re planning on buying a home, don’t forget to get pre-approved early in the process. It can help you get a more in-depth understanding of what you can borrow and shows sellers you mean business.
Read MoreEarly Housing Market Forecasts for 2025
Thinking about moving in 2025? Here’s what experts say you can expect. Mortgage rates are projected to come down. More homes are expected to sell. And prices are forecast to go up. Let's connect to talk about what this means for your plans to move.
Read MoreHow the Federal Reserve’s Next Move Could Impact the Housing Market
Now that it’s September, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve (the Fed). The overwhelming expectation is that they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate at their upcoming meeting, driven primarily by recent signs that inflation is cooling, and the job market is slowing down. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, said: “They’re ready to cut, just as long as we don’t get an inflation surprise between now and September, which we won’t.” But what does this mean for the housing market, and more importantly, for you as a potential homebuyer or seller? Why a Federal Funds Rate Cut Matters The Federal Funds Rate is one of the key factors that influences mortgage rates – things like the economy, geopolitical uncertainty, and more also have an impact. When the Fed cuts the Federal Funds Rate, it signals what’s happening in the broader economy, and mortgage rates tend to respond. While a single rate cut might not lead to a dramatic drop in mortgage rates, it could contribute to the gradual decline that’s already happening. As Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), points out: “Once the Fed kicks off a rate-cutting cycle, we do expect that mortgage rates will move somewhat lower.” And any upcoming Federal Funds Rate cut likely won’t be a one-time event. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says: “Generally, the rate-cutting cycle is not one-and-done. Six to eight rounds of rate cuts all through 2025 look likely.” The Projected Impact on Mortgage Rates Here’s what experts in the industry project for mortgage rates through 2025. One contributing factor to this ongoing gradual decline is the anticipated cuts from the Fed. The graph below shows the latest forecasts from Fannie Mae, MBA, NAR, and Wells Fargo (see graph below): So, with recent improvements in inflation and signs of a cooling job market, a Federal Funds Rate cut is likely to lead to a moderate decline in mortgage rates (shown in the dotted lines). Here are two big reasons why that’s good news for both buyers and sellers: 1. It Helps Alleviate the Lock-In Effect For current homeowners, lower mortgage rates could help ease the lock-in effect. That’s where people feel stuck within their current home because today’s rates are higher than what they locked in when they bought their current house. If the fear of losing your low-rate mortgage and facing higher costs has kept you out of the market, a slight reduction in rates could make selling a bit more attractive again. However, this isn’t expected to bring a flood of sellers to the market, as many homeowners may still be cautious about giving up their existing mortgage rate. 2. It Should Boost Buyer Activity For potential homebuyers, any drop in mortgage rates will provide a more inviting housing market. Lower mortgage rates can reduce the overall cost of homeownership, making it more feasible for you if you’ve been waiting to make a move. What Should You Do? While a Federal Funds Rate cut is not expected to lead to drastically lower mortgage rates, it will likely contribute to the gradual decrease that’s already happening. And while the anticipated rate cut represents a positive shift for the future of the housing market, it’s important to consider your options right now. Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree, sums it up well: “Timing the market is basically impossible. If you’re always waiting for perfect market conditions, you’re going to be waiting forever. Buy now only if it’s a good idea for you.” Bottom Line The expected Federal Funds Rate cut, driven by improving inflation and slower job growth, is likely to have a positive, though gradual, impact on mortgage rates. That could help unlock opportunities for you. When you’re ready, let’s connect. That way you’ll be prepared to take action when the time is right for you.
Read More2025 Housing Market Forecasts: What To Expect
Looking ahead to 2025, it's important to know what experts are projecting for the housing market. And whether you're thinking of buying or selling a home next year, having a clear picture of what they’re calling for can help you make the best possible decision for your homeownership plans. Here’s an early look at the most recent projections on mortgage rates, home sales, and prices for 2025. Mortgage Rates Are Projected To Come Down Slightly Mortgage rates play a significant role in the housing market. The forecasts for 2025 from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and Wells Fargo show an expected gradual decline in mortgage rates over the course of the next year (see chart below): Mortgage rates are projected to come down because continued easing of inflation and a slight rise in unemployment rates are key signs of a strong but slowing economy. And many experts believe these signs will encourage the Federal Reserve to lower the Federal Funds Rate, which tends to lead to lower mortgage rates. As Morgan Stanley says: “With the U.S. Federal Reserve widely expected to begin cutting its benchmark interest rate in 2024, mortgage rates could drop as well—at least slightly.” Expect More Homes To Sell The market will see an increase in both the supply of available homes on the market, as well as a rise in demand, as more buyers and sellers who have been sitting on the sidelines because of higher rates choose to make a move. That’s one big reason why experts are projecting an increase in home sales next year. According to Fannie Mae, MBA, and NAR, total home sales are forecast to climb slightly, with an average of about 5.4 million homes expected to sell in 2025 (see graph below): That would represent a modest uptick from the lower sales numbers in 2023 and 2024. For reference, about 4.8 million total homes were sold in 2023, and expectations are for around 4.5 million homes to sell this year. While slightly lower mortgage rates are not expected to bring a flood of buyers and sellers back to the market, they certainly will get more people moving. That means more homes available for sale – and competition among buyers who want to purchase them. Home Prices Will Go Up Moderately More buyers ready to jump into the market will put continued upward pressure on prices. Take a look at the latest price forecasts from 10 of the most trusted sources in real estate (see graph below): On average, experts forecast home prices will rise nationally by about 2.6% next year. But as you can see, there’s a range of opinions on how much prices will climb. Experts agree, however, that home prices will continue to increase moderately next year at a slower, more normal rate. But keep in mind, prices will always vary by local market. Bottom Line Understanding 2025 housing market forecasts can help you plan your next move. Whether you're buying or selling, staying informed about these trends will ensure you make the best decision possible. Let’s connect to discuss how these forecasts could impact your plans.
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